6 haɗari waɗanda zasu iya cutar da kasuwar hannun jari a cikin 2020

Daya daga cikin kalubalen da kanana da matsakaita masu saka jari ke fuskanta shine abin da za ayi da kasuwar hannayen jari a shekara mai zuwa. Saboda kusan babu wasu zabi zuwa kasuwannin daidaito. A cikin yanayin da kamfanin Julius Baer ya hango cewa matsin tattalin arziki zai zo a ƙarshen 2020 amma kafin, daga bazara mai zuwa ko Janairu na shekara mai zuwa, jakunkuna zasu iya yin sama da kusan 20%. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa ɗayan maɓallan da za su fito ba tare da ɓarna daga yunƙurin saka hannun jari ba shine zaɓi don gudanar da aiki.

A cikin kowane hali, komai yana nuna cewa shekara ce mai tsananin kyau ga ƙanana da matsakaitan masu saka jari. Tuni ba zai zama da sauki ba don samar da dawowa a cikin jaka kamar yadda ta gabata. Idan ba haka ba, akasin haka, dole ne mu mai da hankali sosai ga abin da ke faruwa a kasuwannin kuɗi. Domin yayin da gaskiya ne cewa za a gabatar da damar kasuwancin na ainihi, amma ba ƙaramin gaskiya ba ne cewa ana iya samun kuɗi da yawa fiye da da. Wannan yana daya daga cikin kasadar da masu saka jari suke fuskanta kamar yadda yake a yanzu.

Ofayan maɓallan nuna alama inda kasuwannin daidaito ke tafiya a wannan lokacin shine abin da zai iya faruwa tare da jerin gaskiya ko abubuwan da zasu iya faruwa a wannan lokacin. Kuma menene abin da zai yanke hukunci a ƙarshe alkiblar da jaka take dauka a daya bangaren ko kuma wancan. Bayan wani jerin abubuwan la'akari na fasaha kuma watakila kuma daga mahangar tushenta. A kowane hali zamu bayyana muku manyan haɗarin da kasuwar hannayen jari zata kasance a cikin watanni masu zuwa.

Risks: rashin kulawa a cikin hauhawar farashi

Adadin shekara-shekara na Babban farashin farashin kwastomomi (CPI) shine 0,4%, kashi huɗu cikin goma bisa waɗanda suka yi rajista a watan da ya gabata. Inda ƙungiyoyi masu tasiri mafi girma akan raguwar shekara-shekara Waɗannan su ne kamar haka: sufuri, wanda ya gabatar da bambancin shekara-shekara na 0,0%, kusan maki biyu ƙasa da na watan jiya. Hakan ya faru ne sakamakon raguwar farashin mai da mai a wannan watan, idan aka kwatanta da karin da aka yiwa rajista a watan Yunin 2018.

Wani mafi dacewa shine gidaje, wanda ƙimar shi ta faɗi da fiye da ɗaya aya, yana tsaye a –1,5%, saboda ya sauka a farashin wutar lantarki da kuma mai na ruwa, wanda ya karu a cikin 2018. A nata ɓangaren, rukunin da ya yi fice don kyakkyawan tasirinsa a kan yawan shekara-shekara shi ne: hutu da al'adu, wanda ke ba da matsayinsa zuwa –0,4%, takwas cikin goma bisa na na Mayu, galibi sakamakon karuwar farashin fakitin yawon bude ido, wanda ya fi na shekarar 2018. Yayin da a daya bangaren kuma, Kayayyakin Farashin Masu Sayayya (HICP) ya sanya farashinsa na shekara-shekara zuwa 0,6%, don haka ya rage kashi uku bisa goma dangane da watan da ya gabata .

Tashi cikin kudin ruwa

Wata hanyar da zata iya azabtar da kasuwannin adalci shine mai yuwuwa hauhawar farashin ruwa a cikin yankin Euro. Inda, daga sashen bincike na Bankinter, an nuna cewa ECB zai ci gaba da lura da adadin kudi, a halin yanzu yakai kashi 0,0% ba'a canza ba har zuwa 2021 kuma zai jinkirta tashin kudin ajiyar da ya shafi bankuna daga -0,40, 0,20% na yanzu har zuwa -2021% a cikin 2020, akan 10 na baya. A gefe guda, a cikin wannan yanayin, sun kimanta cewa IRR na Tarayyar Jamus a 2019 A zai ci gaba kusa da ƙarancin tarihinsa a cikin 0,30 (-0,10% / - 0,10%) don zamewa gaba zuwa (-0,20% / + 2020 %) a 0,20 da (+ 0,40% / 2021%) a XNUMX.

Duk da yake a ɗaya hannun, ɓangaren sabis yana haɓaka mai gamsarwa, amma masana'antar yana nuna alamun rauni. Hauhawar farashi, daga maƙasudin ECB (~ 2,0%), duk da dawo da albashi da kuma karuwar samar da kudi (M3). Matsakaicin ƙimar - ƙasa da ƙasa - ya kasance cikin kewayon na shekaru biyu (+ 1,0% / 1,4%) kuma hangen ƙimar hauhawar lokaci mai tsawo yana cikin ƙarancin riba (~ 1,2%). A kowane hali, zai kasance ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da dole ne a yi la'akari dasu don nuna ko lokaci ne mai kyau don shiga kasuwannin daidaito.

Hali a cikin mai

Wani bangare da za a biya kulawa ta musamman shi ne ci gaban farashin ɗanyen mai. Dangane da wannan, Barclays ya saukar da hasashen farashin mai na shekarar 2020, kuma ya ce yana sa ran a ƙananan buƙatu girma saboda rashin ƙarfi fiye da yadda mahallin tattalin arzikin duniya yake tsammani. Domin hakan ba zai shafi kimar bangaren mai kawai ba, har ma da duk wadanda suka kunshi manyan alamu na musayar hajojin kasashen duniya. Har zuwa ma'anar cewa yana iya zama wani ɗayan mahimman abubuwan yanke hukunci a wannan lokacin.

"Duk da haka, mun yi imanin cewa yawan damuwa ya wuce gona da iri kuma a Amurka da sauran kasashen duniya sun kasance masu kyau," in ji manazarta a bankin, inda suka kara da cewa "kasuwar ba ta raina bukatar da ake samu kuma ta fi karuwar samar da kayayyaki a matakan farashin yanzu. ”. Girman amfani zai rage zuwa kusan ganga miliyan 1 a kowace shekara a shekara a shekara ta 2020, yayin da "kariyar kariya ta karu a yayin da ake samun koma-baya ga masana'antun duniya" ya yi nauyi a kan bukatar mai.

Alakar kasuwanci tsakanin China da Amurka

Babu shakka wannan wasan opera na sabulu zai ci gaba a cikin wannan sabon lokacin kuma saboda haka yana ƙayyade alkiblar da kasuwannin daidaito ke ɗauka, a wata ma'ana ko wata. Har zuwa cewa zai iya haifar da babban canji a cikin farashin farashin, kamar yadda ya faru a wannan shekara ta yanzu. A kowane hali, dole ne mu saba da zama tare da wannan matsalar ta ɗan lokaci saboda wannan muhimmin al'amari a alaƙar ƙasa da ƙasa na iya zama sanadin bankuna da kamfanonin ƙarfe su durƙushe a kasuwar hannayen jari a wannan shekara.

Kodayake saboda wannan dalili, yana iya haifar da daidaitaccen daidaitattun asusun mu na tsaro ya haɓaka sosai. A kowane hali, zai zama ma'aunin da dole ne ku kasance da masaniya sosai kuma akai-akai. Ta hanyar ayyuka masu sauri waɗanda basa buƙatar manyan matakan dorewa. Domin a ƙarshen rana zasu iya haifar da tasirin da ba'a so akan ƙananan da matsakaitan masu saka jari. Tare da bambanci sosai tsakanin matsakaita da mafi ƙarancin farashi. Yanayin da zai iya tallafawa ayyukan kasuwanci ko ma aiwatar da shi a cikin zaman ciniki ɗaya.

Girma a cikin tattalin arziki

Funungiyar Funcas ta haɗa da tsinkaya a karon farko na 2020, shekarar da tattalin arzikin Spain ya kasance zai girma 1,9%, kashi uku cikin goma kasa da na 2019. Hasashen na wannan shekara ya kasance a 2,2%, tare da daidaitaccen bayanin kwata-kwata tare da ƙimar 0,5% a cikin ɓangarorin huɗu, ba canzawa daga Kwamitin da ya gabata ba. A cikin shekaru biyun, matsakaicin darajar ci gaban da masu tattaunawar ke tsammani na ci gaba da kasancewa sama da hasashen yankin na Euro.

Yanayin kasuwar ƙasa

Game da canjin canji na ƙasa, wani ɓangaren da zai yanke hukunci zai kasance waɗanda ke da alaƙa da kasuwar ƙasa. A wannan ma'anar, dole ne a tuna cewa yawan jinginar gidaje da aka yi akan gidajen Yana da 29.032, 0,1% ƙasa da na Afrilu 2018. Matsakaicin adadin kuɗi ya kai euro 124.655, tare da ƙaruwa da 0,7%. Matsakaicin adadin jinginar da aka yi rajista a cikin rijistar kadarori a cikin Afrilu (daga ayyukan jama'a na baya) ya zama euro 142.440, ya fi 1,8% sama da na wannan watan a cikin 2018, bisa ga sabon bayanan da Cibiyar Nazarin Nationalididdiga ta Nationalasa (INE) ta bayar.

Duk da yake a ɗaya hannun, don jinginar da aka gina akan dukkan kaddarorin a cikin Afrilu, matsakaicin kuɗin ruwa a farkon shine 2,51% (5,1% ƙasa da na Afrilu 2018) da matsakaicin lokacin shekaru 23. 58,7% na jinginar gidaje suna kan yawan kuɗin ruwa mai canji da 41,3% a kan tsayayyen kudi. Matsakaicin kuɗin ruwa a farkon shine 2,23% don jinginar musayar mai canji (6,4% ƙasa da na Afrilu 2018) da 3,07% don jinginar kuɗin da aka ƙayyade (4,8% ƙasa da ƙasa).

Adadin jinginar gidaje tare da canje-canje a cikin yanayin su da aka yi rajista a cikin rijistar kadarori ya kai 4.814, 20,9% ƙasa da na watan Afrilu 2018. Dangane da nau'in canji a cikin yanayi, an samar da sabbin abubuwa 3.932 a watan Afrilu (ko gyare-gyaren da aka samar tare da tsarin kuɗi ɗaya ), tare da raguwar shekara 19,3%. A gefe guda kuma, yawan ayyukan da suke canza mahalu (i (subrogations ga mai bin su) ya ragu da 27,8% kuma adadin jinginar da mai su ya canza jinginar ya canza (subrogations zuwa debtor) ya ragu da 25,3%.

Game da canjin canji na ƙasa, wani ɓangaren da zai yanke hukunci zai kasance waɗanda ke da alaƙa da kasuwar ƙasa. A wannan ma'anar, dole ne a tuna cewa yawan jinginar gidaje da aka yi akan gidajen Yana da 29.032, 0,1% ƙasa da na Afrilu 2018. Matsakaicin adadin kuɗi ya kai euro 124.655, tare da ƙaruwa da 0,7%. Matsakaicin adadin jinginar da aka yi rajista a cikin rajistar kadara a cikin Afrilu (daga ayyukan jama'a da aka gudanar a baya) ya kai euro 142.440, 1,8% ya fi na wannan watan a 2018.


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